Showing posts with label Sackerson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sackerson. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Disneyland's Magic Stingdom

 


A friend recently returned from a family trip to Disneyland in Florida was enthusing to me about the rides and shows.

One thing he noticed was that the little boats taking them from A to B were in unusually swift-flowing water. It turned out to be an anti-mosquito provision, preventing them laying eggs as they do in pools and sluggish streams. So despite the tropical climate and nearby swampland there is little chance of visitors being plagued by insects.

The architecture is also designed to stop puddles forming (Reader’s Digest says more here.) Disney plans systematically and meticulously.

Could we put them in charge of our railways and the NHS?

Tuesday, April 09, 2024

Fake freedom: gambling

At the newsagent’s an elderly gentleman was checking his wins on a handful of Lottery tickets. I congratulated him but he replied that over the years he had lost a total of £30,000.

He could afford it at his steady rate but there are others much less fortunate. My in-laws recently used a plumber who had retrained to escape from working in a bookmaker’s because he couldn’t stand seeing men come in crying for their wages back, and hearing of customers’ suicides.

The gaming industry excuses itself by pretending that the gambler is exercising his free will and it wouldn’t dream of interfering with his liberty. Instead it offers friendly reminders (‘when the fun stops, stop’) and a helpline (GambleAware, founded 2002), so that absolves the organisers of any responsibility, doesn’t it? But in fact if we were completely rational and self-controlled there would be no need for such advice nor any restrictions on the gaming industry’s activities.

Instead the former chairman of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on betting and gaming has recently resigned his seat over an undercover journalistic sting by The Times in which he offered to take money for privately influencing Parliamentary colleagues and asking questions in the House.

A lot of temptation is down to availability. Betting shops became legal in 1961 and at one point there were 15,000 of them. The National Lottery started in 1994 and now there are some 30,350 terminals selling draw tickets; and in 2014-2020 their sales of instant-result scratchcards averaged over one billion items, annually. Online gaming - accessible not just via computers but on the smartphones that virtually everyone carries around - now accounts for nearly 30% of all non-Lottery income. Overall, the industry’s revenues exceed £15 billion p.a.

If this country truly valued your freedom it would not be policing your speech, to the extent that since 1 April in Scotland saying the wrong thing even in the confines of your home could potentially get you up to seven years in jail.

The only freedoms you may have are those that make money for powerful interests.

Thursday, April 04, 2024

Trashing the system


















‘Big crash coming’ says Jimmy Dore, introducing his guest Paul Stone. They agree that the economy is being mismanaged, because interest rates are too high and the debt is ballooning.

The problem is that everything depends on facts and interpretation, and about the only fact that is unchallengeable is that the public debt is soaring. Stone tells Dore that it is accelerating and he expects it to increase by a trillion dollars every fifty days by the end of this year. Who is going to buy it, and how will the government be able to continue servicing the interest?

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate is at a 23-year high. There is no immediate prospect of easement: one of the Fed’s governors, Christopher Waller cites wage inflation especially in the service sector as the justification. This may be putting the cart before the horse: workers in the service sector tend to earn less than those in manufacturing industry or the FIRE economy so they will have suffered disproportionately from the high recent inflation and will seek more money to make ends meet.

Nor, arguably, is employment generally so low as to require this tightening of credit to dampen inflation. Officially it is running at 3.9% (Feb 2024) as against the long term average of 5.7%; but Stone says that if measured in the old way the rate would be 25% - as it was during the Depression era, observes Dore. Stone’s claim is echoed (‘24.9%’) by the Ludwig Institute, whose ‘True Rate of Unemployment’ tracks ‘the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $25,000 annually before taxes.’

If that higher unemployment figure is a fairer picture then it is another reason to question the government’s decision to permit a vast influx of ‘undocumented’ migrants into the US. These are not needed to open up new Western territories and in general may not be qualified to remedy shortfalls in high-skill sectors. Instead they are likely to compete for jobs that pay relatively little; this will put a brake on wage increases in those sectors and tend to cement the poorer sort into un- and under-employment. Further, the trend towards automation (robotised supermarket checkouts etc) will reduce even such opportunities and help to swell a class at least partly dependent on State benefits; and, perhaps, garner more support for a political party that presents itself as the friend of the poor.

Little wonder that the government is papering over the cracks with truckloads of freshly printed money; but unless the intention is to replicate the German hyperinflationary spiral of 1923 there will have to be a major revision of monetary and fiscal policy. In the interim there are those who will try to square the circle by hitting welfare (my brother tells me that some are saying the poor ‘don’t deserve pensions’, or have irresponsibly failed to put aside funds for their old age - out of what spare income, exactly?)

From one point of view investment is the problem. In a thriving economy ordinary people are paid well enough to buy each other’s goods and services, turning over the money again and again. Instead, the velocity of money has crashed to about one-seventh of its febrile peak in 2008 and is less than half of what it was in 1960.

At the same time the Gini measure of economic inequality in the US has soared to record levels and the excess cash of the upper echelons tends to be invested rather than spent. For decades, corporations and wealthy individuals have absorbed most of the increase in the country’s real wealth and their surplus ‘walketh about as a roaring lion, seeking whom he may devour’: hedge funds are buying up medical practices, care homes, veterinary outfits… and residential property.

Increasingly, ordinary people will be earning a pittance (if they have work at all) and be soaked for the dubious services of medicine and college education and the rent of the ground under their feet. The great American empire is turning Ottoman, a land of pashas and peasants, something Elia Kazan’s uncle fought to escape (watch ‘America, America’ if you can.) Why else would the people consider a maverick like Trump?

Ah, the 1960s! To most of us Brits the cartoon caveman Fred Flintstone was an aspirational fantasy - imagine, a detached home in the suburbs and a private car! - but for millions of Americans it was an amusing take on their reality. Now we are in the world of ‘Nomadland’, people caravanning about for sessional work until their health gives out.

In the video at top Jimmy Dore advocates gold and silver as hedges against the predicted crash of the system (Paul Stone is the CEO of Colonial Metals Group.) This is okay for a moderate level of disaster, though if the paper dollar evaporates gold on its own does not operate efficiently as a monetary basis - it is too valuable (an old rule of thumb is that ‘an ounce of gold buys you a handmade suit.’) Hence the retired business magnate Hugo Salinas Price has long argued for coinage based on silver (by weight rather than nominal value) as well as gold - effectively the bimetallic system required under Article 1, Section 10 of the US Constitution.

In the worst case, even gold doesn’t protect you. In Britain from time to time we unearth hoards of gold artefacts and coins apparently abandoned by surviving Anglo-Saxon nobility fleeing the Norman Conquest of 1066. Some of the fugitives sailed to Constantinople, fought for the Byzantine Emperor and were granted lands in Crimea (aka ‘New England’)… but they never came back for their gold.

The true wealth of a country, apart from its natural resources, is its people. In old age Thomas Jefferson suggested that every time half the population had passed away there should be a revision of the Constitution, the living citizenry being the sole source of power and authority. They would then agree on the new form of the institutions by which they would govern themselves. So much for ‘originalism’!

What I perceive as an outsider - but I have a dog in the fight, as the next two generations of my family are US citizens - is the progressive trashing not just of the US economy but of its institutions also. Whatever the outcome of the multiple trials and official investigations concerning the egregious Mr Trump, it looks to many as though the courts and agencies of America have been politicised and weaponised to prevent his standing again for the Presidency and to preserve some kind of ‘business as usual’ for the ‘uniparty’ establishment. The result is a dangerous diminution of the public trust in institutional impartiality and justice that holds a vast and disparate nation together - ‘Out of many, one,’ a motto that needs urgent attention.

Saturday, March 23, 2024

GOOGLE 'DON'T DO EVIL' SHADOWBANNING NOTE

 10 March: Wiggia writes excellent piece about the current UK political situation. 86 views.

Since then, 17 March music piece: 7 views. 21 March: piece on Scotland's evil new bill on 'hate speech': 2 views.

I strongly suspect the interference - not formally notified to me - of a half-educated right-on ninny on Google's workforce.

How much longer can we continue to use Google/Alphabet Inc's weevil-infested products?

'Don't Do Weevil!'

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Scotland goes electro-fascist... radge, doo-lally

Scotland's new (starts April 1st) hate law:

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/03/scotlands-hate-speech-act-and-abuse-of-process/

_________________________________________________________________
100 years ago...

Bretschneider lapsed into silence and looked disappointedly round the empty pub.

‘Hallo, there used to be a picture of His Imperial Majesty hanging here once,’ he started up again after a while. ‘Just where the mirror hangs now.’

‘Yes, you’re right,’ Palivec replied. ‘It did hang there, but the flies used to shit on it, so I put it away in the attic. You know, somebody might be so free as to pass a remark about it and then there could be unpleasantness. I don’t want that, do I?’

[…]

Bretschneider showed Palivec his eaglet, stared at him for a moment and then asked:

‘Are you married?’

‘I am.’

‘And can Madam carry on the business for you during your absence?’

‘She can.’

‘Then it’s all right, Mr Palivec,’ said Bretschneider gaily. ‘Call your wife here, give the business over to her, and in the evening we’ll come for you.’

‘Take it easy,’ Švejk consoled him. ‘I’m only going there for high treason.’

‘But what am I going for?’ moaned Palivec. ‘After all, I’ve been so careful.’

Bretschneider smiled and said triumphantly:

‘Because you said the flies shitted on His Imperial Majesty. They’ll certainly knock His Imperial Majesty out of your head there.’

_______________________________________
Jaroslav Hašek: The Good Soldier Švejk (1921)

Saturday, March 09, 2024

Glorious!

Scene: Richard Burton (né Jenkins) has brought his extended family to London and put them up at the Dorchester Hotel for the Royal Command Performance of 'The Taming Of The Shrew', 1967...

'Hey, Jenk,' said a Welshman to Burton, overcome by the marble grandeur of the lavatories, 'Doesn't it make your cock look shabby in here?'

In Roger Lewis' 'Erotic Vagrancy', p.464

God bless the Welsh!

Monday, February 26, 2024

So you dream of a passionate relationship?

Elizabeth Taylor on her marriage with Mike Todd:

'Out of my perversity I'd try to drive Mike mad. I'd be late, I'd love it when he would lose his temper and dominate me. I'd start to purr because he'd won.'

In Roger Lewis' biography 'Erotic Vagrancy.'

Lewis comments 'Yet didn't it mean she'd won?'

Thursday, February 22, 2024

Excess deaths

The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) has changed the way it calculates ‘excess deaths’ i.e. whether weekly recorded deaths are more (or less) than expected. The methodology had remained the same for at least half a century: to compare latest data with the average of the previous five years - a simple arithmetical task. Now a new system is used, weighting various factors and interpreting the results with statistical analyses that are far beyond the layperson’s grasp.

The change has been noted with suspicion by (for instance) Youtube commentators Simon Webb and Katie Hopkins. They and others think the government is keen to play down the figures because of the potential for public criticism. The inquiry into Covid and official actions taken started in 2022 and is still ongoing; will it be a face-saving whitewash?

Popular theories abound to explain the apparently anomalous increase in mortality. One, it’s fair to say, is the subject of systematic suppression in the media: the idea that the mRNA vaccines have adversely affected many people, sometimes fatally.

Other reasons are already provisionally accepted: that the lockdowns and other methods of social isolation led to delays in diagnosing and treating cancer, and to ‘deaths of despair’ as people harmed their health with overindulgence in alcohol and drugs. There was also the disastrous decision to ‘clear the decks’ in hospitals by moving elderly patients into care homes where they might infect others and where staff were afraid to look after them appropriately.

However there are a few additional possible reasons why the raw data for deaths in this country might have changed and will continue to change. You may be able to think of more.

  1. The population is ageing
  2. The real number of people living in the UK may be higher than the official estimates. Indirect evidence may come from supermarket purchases or even Facebook usage
  3. There are differences in health and life expectancy among ethnic groups that may become more significant as first and second generation immigration increases. Aside from genetics, people born in less developed countries may not have had a sound foundation in diet and medical assessment/treatment for continued good health as they age.
  4. Drug deaths in the UK are soaring
  5. Economic inequality is increasing and poorer people live less long, for various reasons. The statistics vary around regions of the country
  6. For 2020-2022, male deaths outstripped female - the first time since 1981. Does this indicate that men, traditionally family providers, feel greater pressure and sense of failure in a declining economy and use less approprate coping strategies?
  7. The NHS is failing, especially in the provision of GP services. The contract agreed under the Brown premiership released GPs from the obligation to provide evening and weekend cover and there is an increasing tendency for them to deal with queries remotely - that’s if one can get through on the phone in a reasonable time.
Not all of the above would explain the recent spikes, but it is clear that a subtler analysis is needed.

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Kristallnacht in Stroud

We went to a gig by Katie Hopkins on Thursday in a pub near Stroud. There was a demo opposite the pub and at the last minute someone smashed a glass door. Here is what I have sent to the local paper:

LETTER TO THE EDITOR (OF STROUD NEWS AND JOURNAL)

Dear All

As a witness to the 'window-smashing' at the Star Inn Whiteshill (Stroud News, 12 January) I should like to offer a couple of corrections. Firstly it was a strong double glazed door, and a good thing too as people inside might have been seriously injured by flying glass had the rock weighing several pounds come through one of the windows.

Secondly, your writer says 'There is no suggestion that the damage was linked to the protesters who gathered beforehand.' Allow me to make that suggestion. This was not the early hours suburban bus shelter vandalism common where I live, but an attack carried out before 10 p.m. when the room was still full of people facing the speaker at the end of her talk. I can hardly say the perpetrator was actually from the well-policed crowd of protestors gathered on the other side of the road, but it is not likely pure coincidence that someone came round the back of the property to do this to a crowded room. The febrile atmosphere generated by campaigners was bound to inspire a thuggish moron.

History is repeating itself. My mother grew up in East Prussia when the National Socialists took over and as with all extremist organisations the first target was dissidents: everybody must think the same way. All the teachers joined the Party and tried to browbeat my mother into doing the same, but her father forbade it. She had to fight classmates in the playground but was strong enough to beat them. The school library suddenly had big gaps on the shelves where books by socialists and Jews had been removed. The history teacher was sacked and replaced by the caretaker - who needs nuance when you know the right answer to everything?

So now I am the son of a war refugee, born abroad in a country that no longer exists, and I am seeing another lot of Puritans take over (as though we learned nothing from Cromwell's joyless 1650s Protectorate, but then what history do they teach in British schools today?) Go round Cirencester's Parish church of St John the Baptist as we did yesterday and see how the black-clad right-thinkers vandalised its frescoes during Henry's Dissolution. You cannot say you are inclusive if you claim a hotline to God and use a mailed fist to impose unanimity on the people. It begins with Kristallnacht in well-heeled Whiteshill and among the 97.9% White population of Stroud District, but where will it end?

Thursday, December 21, 2023

Tuesday, November 14, 2023

British Values, by Sackerson

We should be suspicious of anything that tries to wrap itself in the Union Flag. Do you remember the episode of Yes, Minister in which the government blackmailed Eurocrats into renaming our ‘Emulsified High-Fat Offal Tube’ as the ‘British Sausage’?

Similarly in 2014 the coalition government sought to define ‘British Values’. These were designed to reunify the country after New Labour’s initiatives of mass immigration and regionalisation, both of which pose threats to our collective identity. However there has been no serious attempt to reverse either.

The values listed were democracy, rule of law, respect and tolerance, and individual liberty, to be enforced by a curriculum rollout in schools. This wishful mishmash works about as well as France’s 1793 ‘Cult of Reason’ promoted in her recently desecrated churches. Abstract principles do not hold a nation together, especially when they are ill-defined and its rulers obviously do not believe in them.

Let’s start with democracy. We are not like ancient Athens, where male citizens decided policy directly. We elect representatives by a system so flawed that in 2011 we had a referendum about the Alternative Vote. The two main political parties colluded in a campaign against it since the status quo suited them better; they got what they wanted.

Underpinning democratic debate is the acceptance by all sides to be bound by the outcome. In 2016 the Brexit vote exploded that convention, all the more cataclysmically because in formally undertaking to implement the result the political parties had escalated the referendum’s status to that of a plebiscite. A furious Establishment, from the Palace of Westminster down to its media heralds and jesters, has combined to subvert it ever since.

In any case, democracy in the sense of universal adult suffrage is less than a century old. The extension in the UK of the vote to all males in 1918 must have been at least partly influenced by the fear of revolution after a war that killed 880,000 servicemen and an estimated 600,000 civilians, and with the example of Russia for our ruling class to consider.

Since the State won’t listen and increasingly won’t even let us talk to each other on social media, it is hardly surprising that people are ignoring it in turn. Greta Thunberg has explained that she is not an expert but an ‘activist’, and there are so many like her in different fields; all you need is a bad idea and lots of passion. This exposes another weakness in democracy: the power of the demagogue (Demosthenes nearly persuaded Athens to its destruction by the Macedonians) and modern propaganda – let the people vote how they will, provided you can influence how they think.

Even clever and well-informed people can be blinded by ideological commitment, so that the awful collateral damage caused by the IDF’s counter-attacks on Hamas is being mistermed ‘genocide’ – ironic since ‘genocide’ was the unequivocally stated plan of Hamas’s 1988 Covenant, not just for Israel but every last Jew; their 2017 version is more media-savvy but their underlying intent is unchanged, as the events of October 7 have shown.

Civilised restraint in Britain is breaking down. When the free exchange of ideas is persecuted even in universities, diversity turns from a claimed strength to a clear challenge, particularly when some ideologues – from world-savers to soul-savers – are absolutist and believe they have a higher authority than the secular State to sanction property destruction and violence against persons. So much for ‘respect and tolerance’.

If British anthropologist Robin Dunbar is right, the natural limit on a community’s size is 150; to keep Britain’s 67million or more together needs constant maintenance by means of myths, history and symbols. It took centuries and much blood to make an alloy of the disparate communities of the United Kingdom. Yet already there are fracture lines in the nation – New Labour’s devolutions have lit the fires of petty nationalism again, and now we have a significant number of inhabitants with alternative, strongly held beliefs and supranational allegiances. How do we prevent disintegration?

Compared with much of the rest of the world, postwar Britain has been like a sunlit clearing in a dark forest inhabited by monsters. Surely Douglas Murray is right in saying that we are in a fight for survival and that if the State persists in neglecting the people’s security, we shall end up with a genuinely nasty administration or the anarchy of self-appointed vigilantism. This is why we require a secular and impartial rule of law that firmly tackles public disorder, intimidation and incitement, the destruction of property and the defilement of spaces and monuments sacred to various communities. Every country should have such a rule and we ourselves are failing to maintain it.

Our greatest ‘British Value’, personal freedom, is not so much a value as a habit. If our history were to be taught in school as illustrating a theme, the leitmotif would be resistance to overweening arbitrary power. Little of Magna Carta remains in force yet it set a precedent: the King’s will was not the whole of the law. It was a lesson forgotten when the Stuart monarchy tried to enforce Anglicanism on Catholics, Scots Presbyterians and Dissenters. It was forgotten again when Cromwell imposed Puritanism on the people – we really don’t need another lot of tyrannical black-clad fanatics, though we seem set to have them – and once more in 2020, when the British equivalent of the Committee of Public Safety confined us to our homes. How easily did our freedom evaporate three years ago!

It is time – it is long past time – for the State to exercise muscular liberalism, that balance of official self-limitation with restraint on popular inciters and oppressors, that inch of freedom between ‘must’ and ‘mustn’t.’

Peace depends in part on not resolving certain issues and on restraining those who are keen to join battle about them. Often it is not convictions that need enforcement, but the lack of them. Fervently held political and religious beliefs would turn Paradise into a wasteland; our answer to zealots must be ‘you may be right, but can we decide that later and get along together for now?’

J S Mill said that freedom of speech was possible only in societies that had attained a certain level of development. If we lose the capacity to consider alternatives and peacefully suspend judgment or ‘agree to disagree’, we must resign ourselves to sliding back to an authoritarian and censorious State; one that will make serious errors because those who could warn it are muzzled; one that may already have done so in the fields of climate change and public health.

Dissenters and protesters, yes; rioters and rabble-rousers, no. Let us see if our beleaguered police and security apparatus can strike the vital balance this Remembrance weekend.

Previously published at The Conservative Woman Defending Freedom

Monday, November 06, 2023

1914: an alternative history

 What if Britain had not declared war on Germany in 1914? Think of the grief and destruction we might have avoided; the constant and worsening financial problems we have faced ever since. Maybe there would have been no humiliated and ruined Germany, no vengeful Hitler, no Holocaust, no mass migration of surviving Jewry to the Middle East; no collapse of the Ottoman Empire, no Russian revolution and its terrible daughter revolutions in the Far East.

What problems we face now, with our support for conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Gaza/Israel... 

I asked ChatGPT to speculate and here is its answer:

__________________________________

Give an alternative history of the British Empire and Western Europe if Britain had not declared war on Germany in 1914.

An alternative history of the British Empire and Western Europe if Britain had not declared war on Germany in 1914 would have had profound and far-reaching consequences. The outbreak of World War I was a pivotal moment in world history, and any deviation from the actual course of events would have led to a significantly different timeline. Here's a speculative scenario of what might have happened:

  1. Delayed or Avoided World War I: If Britain had chosen not to declare war on Germany in 1914, it's possible that the conflict might not have escalated to a world war. The major powers, including Britain, might have sought diplomatic solutions to the tensions that had been building for years.
  2. Altered Alliances: Without Britain's entry into the war, the alliances between the major powers would have been significantly different. The Triple Entente (France, Russia, and Britain) would likely have remained intact, but it might not have directly opposed the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire). This could have resulted in a more multipolar world order.
  3. Economic Prosperity: The avoidance of a world war would have allowed Western Europe to continue its economic growth and development. The devastation and financial burden of World War I were enormous, and without it, European economies might have experienced a more prolonged period of stability and growth.
  4. Avoidance of the Russian Revolution: The Russian Revolution of 1917 was a direct result of the pressures and hardships of World War I. Without Britain's entry into the conflict, the Russian Empire might have avoided the turmoil that led to the rise of the Bolsheviks and the collapse of the monarchy. This could have prevented the formation of the Soviet Union.
  5. Decolonization: The post-war period saw the decline of European empires, with decolonization movements gaining momentum. In an alternate history without World War I, the process of decolonization might have been delayed or played out differently. The British Empire might have retained its colonies for a more extended period.
  6. Changed Balance of Power: The absence of World War I would have prevented the weakening of major European powers, such as France and Germany. The balance of power in Europe might have been more stable, possibly leading to different outcomes in the interwar period and beyond.
  7. Altered National Identities: The effects of World War I, including the redrawing of national borders and the collapse of empires, had a profound impact on national identities in Europe. In an alternative history, these identities might have evolved differently, leading to different political dynamics and alliances.
  8. Different World War II: The absence of World War I would likely have had a cascading effect on the events leading up to World War II. The geopolitical landscape and alliances would have been different, potentially leading to a distinct Second World War or preventing it altogether.

It's important to note that this alternative history is highly speculative, and numerous factors and contingencies would come into play. The decision-making of various world leaders, diplomatic efforts, and unforeseen events would have shaped the course of history in unpredictable ways. Nonetheless, it's clear that the avoidance of World War I would have had a profound impact on the 20th century and beyond.

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

The Great Umm Kulthum

I first heard a recording of this legendary Egyptian singer in the mid-Seventies when a housemate, an escapee from Yemen, played it with friends. The live performance was as thrilling because of the audience reaction as for the impassioned delivery of her song.

Apparently her performances could last up to five hours, but here is a sample from her Enta Omri (You Are My Life) given at Paris' Olympia Théâtre in 1967:


Sunday, October 29, 2023

If ever you're tempted to write...

 A moment I can't forget is Peter Richardson as Al Pacino in The Comic Strip Presents' episode 'The Strike.' The writer has scripted a lengthy impassioned speech and the Hollywood superstar dismisses it with:

'I can say all that by the way I stand.'

At what point did movies run away from words? Maybe when Hollywood's Golden Age European émigré / refugee writers left the scene.

Anyhow, a classic, and thank goodness it's on Youtube:

Monday, October 23, 2023

Proxy War Poll

 Which proxy warfighter do you support?

1) Kiev regime

2) Hamas

3) Both

4) Neither

Monday, October 02, 2023

Ocean viruses and carbon sequestration

new bacteria-infesting virus has been discovered in the western Pacific’s Mariana Trench, the deepest part of the world’s oceans. 

Viruses kill 20% of the ocean’s biomass every day, breaking it down into constituents that are then taken up by other bacteria and also helping to form the ‘marine snow’ of particles falling to the ocean floor. 

A link in the above article leads to another that says ‘It is estimated that there are around 10^31 viruses in the world’s oceans accounting for ~94% of all biological entities (nucleic acid containing particles). Despite their small size, the amount of carbon they contain is estimated to be the equivalent of 75 million blue whales.’

This opens a window onto a great area of science and nature of which I was previously unaware.

Saturday, August 26, 2023

AI does Climate Change

 Having just watched (by chance) an old video talk given by Professor Ian Plimer on the Earth's history and the many factors influenceng climate, I asked our robot thinker ChatGPT to do a mini essay:

Itemise and evaluate factors other than carbon dioxide that may affect climate change

Climate change is influenced by a variety of factors beyond carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. These factors can have both natural and human-induced origins, and their impacts can either amplify or mitigate the effects of climate change. Here's a list of some important non-CO2 factors:

  • Methane (CH4): Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with a much higher heat-trapping potential than CO2 over a short period. It primarily comes from sources like livestock digestion, rice paddies, wetlands, landfills, and fossil fuel production. Addressing methane emissions is crucial as reducing them could provide significant short-term climate benefits.
  • Black Carbon (Soot): Black carbon consists of fine particulate matter emitted from incomplete combustion of carbon-based fuels, biomass burning, and industrial processes. It absorbs sunlight, warming the atmosphere and contributing to the melting of snow and ice, thus accelerating the warming of certain regions.
  • Aerosols: Aerosols are tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere that can either reflect sunlight back into space (cooling effect) or absorb sunlight and heat the atmosphere (warming effect). They can originate from natural sources like volcanoes or human activities like burning fossil fuels. Aerosols can have complex and sometimes counteracting effects on climate.
  • Land Use Changes: Deforestation, urbanization, and changes in land cover can influence climate by altering the Earth's surface properties. Forests, for instance, act as carbon sinks, absorbing CO2, while urban areas with dark surfaces (such as asphalt) absorb more heat, contributing to the "urban heat island" effect.
  • Albedo Effect: Albedo refers to the reflective properties of a surface. Light-colored surfaces, like snow and ice, have a high albedo and reflect sunlight back into space. Dark surfaces, on the other hand, have a low albedo and absorb more heat. Melting ice reduces the planet's albedo, leading to more heat absorption and further warming.
  • Water Vapor: Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and its concentration increases with higher temperatures. While it's not directly controlled by humans, it acts as a feedback mechanism, amplifying the warming effect of other greenhouse gases.
  • Solar Variability: Changes in the sun's output can influence Earth's climate. While variations in solar radiation are relatively small and play a minor role in recent climate change, they have contributed to past climate variations.
  • Volcanic Activity: Volcanic eruptions release aerosols and gases into the atmosphere, which can have both warming (due to greenhouse gases like CO2) and cooling (due to aerosols reflecting sunlight) effects, depending on the type and magnitude of the eruption.
  • Ocean Circulation Patterns: Ocean currents play a significant role in redistributing heat around the planet. Changes in these currents, such as El Niño and La Niña events, can influence regional climates and weather patterns.
  • Industrial and Agricultural Emissions: Besides CO2 and methane, other greenhouse gases like nitrous oxide (N2O) from agricultural practices and industrial processes also contribute to climate change.
  • Human-made Reflective Surfaces: Urban planning and infrastructure choices can impact local climate through the use of reflective materials that reduce heat absorption.

Evaluating these factors involves considering their magnitudes, lifetimes in the atmosphere, and interactions with other components of the climate system. Addressing non-CO2 factors requires a comprehensive approach to climate policy that goes beyond CO2 reduction strategies.

------------

It missed the Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles but there's plenty to chew on there.

I liked the talk - and the crack about plate tectonics ridding Australia of New Zealand ('and that's a good thing') and hope to find a cheap copy of his latest book, Green Murder - WOB just sold out.

Monday, August 14, 2023

AI Does Spad (2): Wargaming 'Max Headroom'

 Write a confidential memorandum for the Conservative Party leadership to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer, and to predict what he will do if he becomes Prime Minister
ChatGPT

Confidential Memorandum

To: Conservative Party Leadership From: [Your Name] Date: [Date]

Subject: Evaluation of Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer and Potential Future Scenarios

As we approach the upcoming political landscape, it is essential to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the Labour Party under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer. Additionally, we must anticipate potential actions and policies that may emerge should he become Prime Minister. This memo aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation for strategic planning purposes.

Strengths of Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer:

  1. Moderate Image: Sir Keir Starmer's leadership has positioned the Labour Party as more moderate and centrist, distancing it from the far-left policies associated with the previous leadership. This could attract a broader range of voters, including some traditional Conservative supporters who may be disenchanted with our party's direction.

  2. Professionalism and Legal Background: Sir Keir's legal background and professional demeanor appeal to voters seeking stability and competence in leadership. This may enhance his image as a credible alternative to our own party's leadership.

  3. Focus on Accountability: His emphasis on accountability and proper governance resonates with voters who prioritize transparency and ethical conduct in politics.

Weaknesses of Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer:

  1. Internal Party Divisions: Despite his efforts to unite the party, internal divisions between different factions of the Labour Party still exist. These divisions can weaken his ability to present a cohesive and united front, especially during critical policy debates.

  2. Lack of Clear Policy Direction: While the moderate stance may appeal to a broader audience, the Labour Party has struggled to articulate a distinctive policy agenda that resonates with voters beyond criticizing our party's policies. This lack of clarity may hinder their ability to gain widespread support.

  3. Limited Charisma and Popularity: Sir Keir Starmer's leadership style lacks the charisma and natural popularity associated with some past political leaders. This could impact his ability to connect with voters on an emotional level.

Anticipated Actions under Prime Minister Keir Starmer:

  1. Economic Policy: Expect an emphasis on social welfare and a more interventionist approach to the economy. Tax reforms may focus on higher earners and corporations to fund increased spending on public services.

  2. Healthcare and Education: There will likely be efforts to invest heavily in the National Health Service (NHS) and education, capitalizing on his legal background and professional credibility.

  3. Climate and Environment: Anticipate an ambitious push for green policies, including stricter emissions targets, renewable energy investment, and sustainable infrastructure projects.

  4. Social Justice and Equality: Policies to address inequality and social justice issues will likely be central to his agenda, with a focus on labor rights, gender equality, and diversity initiatives.

  5. Foreign Relations: Starmer is likely to maintain a strong international stance, prioritizing alliances and diplomatic efforts. However, his approach may differ from ours, especially in areas like trade negotiations and international interventions.

In conclusion, while Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party presents both strengths and weaknesses, it is crucial for us to proactively address his potential actions as Prime Minister. By understanding his policy priorities and potential strategies, we can better position ourselves to counter his proposals and present a compelling alternative to the electorate.

Please treat this memorandum as highly confidential and limit its distribution to relevant party leaders and strategists.